펌] SI의 사이영 예상
- 작성일
- 13-03-30 11:28
National League Cy Young
Matt Cain, Giants. At 28, Cain, who like Price keeps getting better and better, has hit his prime. His WHIP has declined four straight years and he has cut is walks in half since he was a rookie.Chen Stephen Strasburg, Nationals. Clayton Kershaw will be in the mix, of course, and I think Kris Medlen, Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos will be in the discussion with big breakout seasons. But I'll go with Strasburg, who's lost a little off his fastball after Tommy John surgery, but is still the filthiest pitcher on the planet.Reiter Stephen Strasburg, Nationals. Take out his last three starts, which suggested that Washington wasn't entirely wrong in shutting him down (he allowed 10 earned runs in 14 innings), and Strasburg had a 2.85 ERA, with an absurd strikeout rate of 11.33 per nine innings. Since 1884, only five men have exceeded that latter number: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Kerry Wood, Nolan Ryan and Dwight Gooden. And remember, 2012 represented Strasburg's first extended stay in the majors. His second will be even more successful, and throw in another Silver Slugger for him, too. Strasburg batted .277 last year, with an OPS of .759, and is the game's best hitting pitcher.Lemire Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Aside from one being a lefty and the other a righty, Kershaw and Justin Verlander are essentially mirror images. They are of similar height and effectiveness, both won their league's pitching Triple Crown and the Cy Young awards in 2011 and finished as Cy runners-up in '12. Look for the Dodgers' southpaw to lead the majors in ERA for a third straight season.Jaffe Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. It's tempting to say Stephen Strasburg here, but he has yet to reach 162 innings in a professional season, let alone the 200 or more that Cy Young contention essentially requires. Kershaw already has one Cy on his mantle from 2011, and was nearly as good last year.Corcoran Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Sure, Stephen Strasburg is the se.xy choice, but Kershaw, like Verlander, won this award in 2011 and finished second in 2012, a year in which he finished second in the voting and was every bit as good as the man who won. I want to see how Strasburg holds up over a 200-inning workload before I'm willing to pick him over a 25-year-old stud whose career ERA (2.79, 138 ERA+) is better than Strasburg's was in 159 1/3 innings last year (3.16, 125 ERA+).Sheehan Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. Kershaw won the award in 2011 and was arguably the best pitcher in the NL last year as well. In the NL right now, only Cliff Lee approaches his performance level and durability. |
American League Cy Young
David Price, Rays. Yes, we're talking something that's never happened before: back-to-back Cys for an AL lefthander. He's still only 27 and keeps getting better, especially with the addition of the cutter he picked up from James Shields.Chen Yu Darvish, Rangers. Despite everything -- the media circus, the expectations, the move to a new league and a new country, the oppressive Texas heat -- the Whirling Darvish in his debut season was mostly very good, and at times great. He'll cut down on his walks, build off his excellent 2012 finish and become the Rangers' first-ever Cy Young winner.Reiter Justin Verlander, Tigers. Nothing against David Price, but last year's AL Cy voting reminded me of the NBA's MVP voting of two decades ago, when people often picked players other than Michael Jordan so as not to get bored. Verlander is the Jordan or pitching, a singular performer with relentless drive (he's thrown 516 more pitches the past two years than anyone else), and he'll be the annual favorite until further notice.Lemire Yu Darvish, Rangers. Darvish's 2012 numbers were mostly good -- 16-9, 3.90 ERA, 10.4 K/9 -- though hampered by a high walk rate (4.2 BB/9). In his final seven starts, however, Darvish had a 2.13 ERA while averaging 7 1/3 innings per outing, striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings, not walking more than two in any game and allowing just a .167 batting average against. Look for him to sustain an improved K/BB rate and outperform his AL peers.Jaffe Yu Darvish, Rangers. His late-season performance uptick wasn't just chance, it owed to the improvement of his cut fastball, as if he needed another weapon with which to attack hitters. Toiling in a hitter-friendly ballpark means that he'll have a tougher road to the award than Justin Verlander or David Price, but the potential is certainly there.Corcoran Justin Verlander, Tigers. Verlander was the unanimous winner of this award in 2011 and should have won it in 2012 (he had one fewer first-place vote than actual winner David Price). I have no reason to believe he'll regress in his age-30 season, and with the Tigers' upgrades on offense, he stands a good chance to see his win total increase from last season, which should help convince the fringe old-school voters who abandoned him last year after he won 17 games.Sheehan Felix Hernandez, Mariners. Choosing from among the top three starters in the AL -- David Price and Justin Verlander are the others -- is virtually impossible. They've won the last three AL Cy Young awards, and Hernandez, helped by extra starts against the Astros, squeezes out his second. 늘은 커쇼로 통일 아메는 벌괴와 달빛 올해 달빛의 슬라이더가 과연 을마나 아메 타자들의 배트를 벗겨낼 수 있을지요 |
;)
- 게시물이 없습니다.
- 게시물이 없습니다.
- 게시물이 없습니다.