해외에선 류현진을 어떻게 보는가
- 작성일
- 12-10-31 16:31
NUMBER ONE STARTER:
**Two plus pitches
**Average third pitch
**Plus/plus command
**Plus makeup
에이스라 함은 2개의 플러스 피치 (60이상) 과 1개의 50이상의 구질 60 이상의 커맨드를 갖춘 선수로 정의 하고 있습니다. 예는 다음과 같습니다.
Current examples of a Number One starter include Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and Stephen Strasburg. Roy Halladay in his prime. Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, and Roger Clemens were all Number One starters,
NUMBER TWO STARTER
**Two plus pitches
**Average third pitch
**Average command
**Average makeup
2선발이라 함은 역시 2개의 플러스 피치와 한개의 평균적인 구질, 평균 이상의 커맨드를 언급하고 있습니다. 예는 다음과 같습니다.
Current examples: for me, Zack Greinke is a guy who exists right on the borderline between a very strong Number Two and a Number One, as does Gio Gonzalez. Johnny Cueto has pitched like a Number One for the last year and a half but hasn't proven to have that kind of long-term durability yet so would rank as a strong two for me. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.
NUMBER THREE STARTER
**One plus pitch
**Two average pitches
**Average command
**Average makeup
3선발급이라 함은 위와 같고 예는 다음과 같습니다.
This is healthy Mike Pelfrey, Jake Westbrook, Joe Blanton. Jim Lonborg. Brad Radke was a Number Three starter who became the default Number One for theMinnesota Twins in the late 1990s. Jon Lieber. Kevin Tapani. Jon Garland. Jason Hammel. Phil Hughes.
NUMBER FOUR/FIVE STARTER
**Command of two major league pitches
**Average velocity
**Consistent breaking ball
**Decent changeup
4,5 선발이라 함은 2개의 50점 이상의 구질과 평균 수준의 구속, 적절하 변화구와 50점 이상의 체인지업을 의미하며, 4,5 선발감이라 함은 170~80 이닝을 책임져줄 선수로 평가하고 있습니다.
Examples are legion. Old Barry Zito. Ivan Nova. Blake Beavan. Luke Hochevar.
Something to consider: fans are often disappointed when a prospect is referred to as a "Future Number Three starter," but that's actually a huge complement. Even calling someone a Future 4/5 isn't a bad thing: there aren't enough 1/2/3 guys to fill every major league rotation spot, and even if a guy is just going to provide 170 so-so innings, that's still valuable.
위에서 보신것을 참고로 하겠습니다.
20-80 레이팅은 다음과 같습니다
80 - 명전급 plus-plus 란 말로 표현합니다
70 - 올스타급
60 - 솔리드한 주전 - plus란 말로 표현합니다
50 - 평균 - average 란 말로 표현합니다
40 - 평균 이하 - below average 란 말로 표현합니다
일전에 KBS 방송 사진에 모 스카우트의 류현진 자료가 나와서 파이어 된적이 있었는데
그의 자료에 따르면
류현진의 구질은
패스트볼 : 40~50
커브 : 50
체인지업 : 55이었습니다
즉, 패스트볼을 좋게 평가하자면 2개의 메이저 평균 수준의 구질과 1개의 평균이상의 구질을 보유하고 있고 이는 위의 3~4선발 수준이 됩니다
하지만 그의 커맨드에 관해서는 존에 높게 형성된다고 적어놨었죠.
이것 외에 다른 자료들을 첨부할까 합니다
1. http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Hyun-Jin_Ryu
이곳에서는 류현진을 다음과 같이 평가합니다
He throws a fastball around 90 mph (tops out at 93 mph),a decent curveball,a slider, and a deceptive changeup. Scouts say that the changeup is his best pitch and is a legitimate out-pitch at the big league level.
decent란 평가가 붙는 50~55점 사이의 커브와 체인지업, 빅리그 레벨의 체인지업... 역시 같은 수준의 평가입니다
2. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/introducing-hyunjin-ryu/
이곳에서는 구체적인 커맨트는 없었으나
다음과 같은 매우 유용한 자료를 남겼습니다.
저는 Pitch Fx를 분석할 능력이 부족하여 이에 대한 커맨트는 생략합니다.
ㅋ48 님이라면 왠지 가능하실듯한...
3. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/final-round-wbc-coverage/
하드볼 타임즈에서 09년에 작성한 글입니다
Ryu's fastball is basically as close to MLB average as a pitch can get: 91.7 mph with about five inches of horizontal movement and 11 inches vertically. Ryu hasn't thrown that fastball much, however, just about 50 percent of the time in the WBC. Ryu throws a nice circle change-up, which you can see because it moves down and away from right-handed hitters compared to his fastball. Ryu gets about a league average speed differential with that pitch and he correctly uses it extensively against right-handed hitters.
류현진의 패스트볼에 대해서 빅리그 평균 수준의 패스트볼이며 체인지업에 대해선 nice란 말을 붙여 줬습니다. 패스트볼 체인지업의 구속차이는 mlb 평균 수준으라고 하네요.
Ryu's slider and curveball are also nice pitches. His slider doesn't have a lot of horizontal movement, but good downward vertical movement, helping him keep it low and away to left-handed hitters. His curve features some nice vertical drop and is about 15 mph slower than his fastball, which is much more in line with the kind of curves you see in the big leagues.
슬라이더와 커브에 대해서도 좋은 평이네요.
Ryu has about average big league stuff. With the right guidance, he certainly has the tools to be a solid major league pitcher. Sadly, I don't think he is likely to be given that opportunity because of his injuries and previous overwork. I would have my doubts investing in a 21-year-old who already has needed surgery. It is clear that he already has mastered the KBO, so if he is going to progress more as a pitcher, tougher competition would help. Japan seems like a reasonable option and, if he can stay healthy, maybe in a few years he might to make his way stateside.
스터프 수준은 리그 평균 수준인 50점을 주었고, 솔리드한 빅리그 주전감이라 평했습니다.
다만 그의 로딩을 걱정하고 있네요.
4. 트위터발 소식입니다
"According to David P. (a Pacific Rim scout, @YankeeSource on Twitter), he could be a mid-rotation starter that has good pitchability and better stuff than Wei Yin-Chen."
“Ryu has four average to above-average pitches, (including) a 86-93 mph fastball with late life that he can add and subtract from when needed, a slow curve (75 mph), a tighter slider and a changeup,” wrote the publication. “Ryu’s biggest asset is his feel for pitching. Scouts have said that he would be a first-round pick if he was in the U.S.”
화재가 됬던 양키스 스카우트의 트윗인데 그의 구질에 관한 그의 생각을 볼 수 있네요
4개의 구질에 관해서 평균이상 (55점)을 주었습니다.
흠.. 종합해 보면 구질 자체만을 보면 3,4 선발감임은 분명해 보입니다만
로케이션이나 체력 문제 등은 관건이겠군요..
이상으로 허접한 글 마무리하겠습니다.
;)
